Gigs Shrugged

This isn’t just a panic.  The market has fundamentally shifted and there isn’t sufficient buying pressure to sustain the amount of L$ that are being printed through stipends and etc.

This was bound to happen at some point because no network can grow forever.   Not quite a ponzi, but ponzi-like in the sense that Linden Lab’s actions required constant growth that never leveled off or dropped.

So anyway things should continue to bounce around.   The only thing keeping a lid on the L$ at all is because people have ingrained ideas about the worth of the L$, which leads speculators to lay down big bets when the L$ bounces up.  If it weren’t for people willing to pick up “cheap” L$ at 300, we’d have much more of a breakout.

This psychological inertia won’t last forever.  There’s only a few possible outcomes I see:

• Linden Lab takes action to revalue the L$
  • Accepting tier in L$… comes straight off the bottom line, the owners and VC will not like this one.
  • Cutting stipends retroactively.   If they just cut stipends while retaining premium membership the way it is users will be upset.  So if they go this way, they’ll have to do something drastic: get rid of premium entirely, for every account regardless of age.  They’d have to make this effective on the renewal date so this measure would take about a month to really start having an effect.
• Linden Lab does nothing.  Demand for L$ may increase, but it’s June, so that’s kind of doubtful with people doing things outside.

There should be some solid foundation this weekend as demand picks up again.  Around the beginning of July, things might get nasty.  I predict fireworks around July 4th.

What are “PG” Regions, groups, events, and classifieds?

There are some landowners and Residents who desire a Second Life experience distinct from the activity that occurs in Mature and Adult Regions.  Region owners who wish to host this sort of Second Life experience should designate their Regions as PG.  A Region may be designated PG so long as it does not advertise or make available any content that is suggestive of any (even mildly) sexual or violent themes, or references to social drug or alcohol usage.

For instance, institutions such as universities, conference organizers, and real world businesses whose users may not wish to view or interact closely with the broader Second Life experience may designate their Regions as PG to achieve this added level of protection and segregation.

Since Linden Lab will probably deny this policy ever existed in a couple months after they silently change it, I’m posting it here.

I’m off to have a beer now.  Oops, I guess that means this blog post is no longer PG.

The passage below is reminder of how far Linden Lab has gone from their original dream of being “bigger than the web”.  Self-limiting decisions such as this “adult ghetto”, banning people for “unacceptable fantasies”, and in general, moving further and further from the concept of a common carrier, and turning into something more and more like AOL in 1995…  a sandboxed playground for kids and people who can’t figure out how to use anything better.

Linden Lab wrote, in December 2006:

We could never write a set of rules that would work for all people all the time, nor could we enforce them across a population that is growing so rapidly. Instead, we believe that the best way to foster communication and expression is to put power into the hands of the people by giving you better tools for local control. And that’s what we’ve been doing for several months now. [...]
(more…)

For the first time ever, the Second Life Peak Monthly Cash Flow economic statistic has shrunk in seven out of nine income categories.  In the two other categories, it remained nearly flat.  Residents with significant L$ income of over $200 per month dropped from 4377 to 4277, a loss of 2.2%.  The November data indicates continuation of the slowdown that was first seen in October’s data.

Linden Lab has also censored the data regarding islands lost per month, claiming that it wasn’t an accurate reflection.   The massive loss of islands is a direct result of Linden Lab’s disasterous price increase on Openspaces.  December data will likely be worse, continuing the Second Life recession.

In an unsurprising move, Linden Lab, the makers of Second Life, continued their slide toward Disney-like fasism, this time removing virtual skin vending machines that demonstrated child avatar skins, complete with baked-in underwear.  This is stuff no worse than anyone can see in real life at a public beach.

This is apparently a policy change, as it was enforced against two separate sellers of non-sexual child avatar skins, and was reviewed under appeal and upheld.  The policy cited was:

“Real-life images, avatar portrayals, and other depictions of
sexual or lewd acts involving or appearing to involve
children or minors are never allowed within Second Life.”

I do wonder about the Lindens involved, if they consider a skin texture vending machine a sexual act.  Maybe they should seek treatment for this fetish for virtual vending machines.

1. Wish Cris would change the status tag to “Banninated”
2. Watch threads devolve into flame wars…  Without my help!
3. Sleep.  Lots.
4. Go Grocery Shopping
5. Cook more (bacon)
6. Worry that people I respect might have taken those deliberately outrageous posts seriously
7. Work on that project that I really should be working on but I keep putting it off
8. Actually log on to SL (gasp)
9. Rotate my canned foods
10. Write a lot more blog posts, like this one!

While I’m not the least controversial character, I usually don’t embrace drama for drama’s sake.  I want to post about my recent banning from SLU to clear the air about certain things though.

1. Cris was absolutely justified in banning me.
2. It’s only for a week.
3. The threads were as described, various extremely tasteless “parody threads”.
4. They were just parodies and I don’t really feel that way about any of the attacked groups.

At the time the “stupid libertarian” thread was building up, I was in bed with food poisoning.  This much of it wasn’t Richie’s fault, but it did contribute to me flying off the handle, especially since I still felt pretty awful when I logged on.

As for why I did it, basically see Cale’s thread.  It wasn’t just that a couple people were attacking me, more upsetting was that no one was particularly calling them on it.  Cale sums up the situation nicely and I appreciate her being a rational voice.  It means that much more because I know she rarely agrees with me.  I do enjoy discussing politics with the majority of people on SLU, even if I only rarely get agreement.

See you all in a week or so.

In a blog by M Linden, Linden Lab detailed their new openspace “compromise”:

• The price will still go up to $125
• Now you’ll have all kinds of new technical limits

Great.  Perfect “compromise”.  The only people buying this are ones who fail at reading comprehension.

The following regions are affected:

• Dagny SW
• Dagny NW
• Dagny SE
• Conway 1
• Conway 2
• Conway 3
• Conway 4
• BoomTchik
• Amira
• Mises North
• Mises South
• Mises East
• Mises West
• Socio
• Brakeman

If you currently rent an Openspace (also called low-prim) sim from me, this information is important to you.

Most of you have probably already heard that Linden Lab is raising the price for Openspaces to $125 per month for wholesale owners like me.  This is for all openspaces, regardless if they were grandfathered before.

There has been a large outcry, and you can vote on this Jira if you want to register your disapproval.

Because of this, effective as of the rent due January 1, All GT openspaces will be at the rate of $135/month USD or 36450 L$/month, and as of July 1, $165/month USD or 44550L$/month.

I strongly encourage all my openspace tenants to consider moving to 1/4th sim products instead.  I can offer 1/4th sim for $100 US/27000L$ a month, 3750 prims.  I may require deposits for tenants that want to remain on openspaces to make sure that no one changes their mind on January 1.

If you do not move out:

The rent you are paying now for November is the same as it was before, and the rent you will pay on December 1 is the same also.  Starting January 1 the higher rate will take effect.

Linden Lab either is extremely smart, and has a plan and ulterior motives, or they are very short sighted and really are just making this stuff up as they go along.

Humps made an excellent post on SLU:

A few months back, (or however long it is since LL announced their new openspace policy/pricing), LL in one fell swoop almost ruined Sarah’s business along with many other landlords/estate owners. Who in their right mind would want to rent a quarter sim, with neighbours when for the same tier they could have an entire sim with privacy and the same prim count. Back then Sarah and her peers were justifiably annoyed. FUCK YOU said LL. This is how it is going to be….get on with it.

So ever resourceful, Sarah (along with many of her peers) completely altered their business model. Converting full islands into open spaces and buying new ones in order that they could salvage their business in some form or another. LL could not fail to recognise what was happening. It was after all the only viable thing for estate owners to do, or be left with empty regions which still need to be paid for every month. I would go so far as to say that LL actively encouraged this as the way forward for estate owners. They even brought in additional, new measures to help facilitate this… i.e. the transfer owner to payer option.

For them to turn around now and say that ANYONE abused the situation is a second FUCK YOU from LL. They have happily taken the orders (and the fee’s), happily taken the tier every month, so to say they were unaware of the problem this might cause down the road is simply naive. At best it is rank opportunism on their part.